How does the tariff impact simulator work?

This tool shows the current trade volume and duty burden for each HS product category, then lets you model what would happen if the effective tariff rate changed. It calculates the additional duty that would be collected based on current import volumes. It does not model behavioral changes like import substitution.

What is trade volume at risk?

Trade volume at risk refers to the dollar value of imports that would be affected by a tariff change. For a product with $10B in imports and a proposed 25% tariff, the trade volume at risk is $10B and the additional duty would be approximately $2.5B.

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Tariff Impact Simulator

Model how tariff rate changes affect U.S. trade. Select products and adjust duty rates to see the estimated impact on duty collection and trade volumes.

This simulator calculates static impact only. It does not model import substitution, retaliation, or supply chain shifts.

How Tariff Changes Affect Trade

When tariff rates increase, the immediate effect is higher duty collection on the same import volume. Over time, higher tariffs may reduce import volumes as buyers switch to domestic alternatives or different source countries.

This simulator shows the first-order effect: given current trade volumes, what would the duty collection look like at different tariff rates? For deeper analysis, see our Tariff Impact Statistics page.

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Tariff Rate Lookup Import Cost Estimator Tariff Statistics Trade Balance Calculator

Product	Import Value	Current Duty	Current Rate
PASS VEH SPK-IG INT COM RCPR P ENG >1500 NOV 3M CC 870323	$4.6B	$735M	18.6%
PASS VEH W/SPK-IG AND ELEC MOTOR,NOT CHRGD BY PLUG 870340	$2.3B	$337M	15.4%
ALUMINUM ALLOY RECT PLATES ETC, OVER .2 MM THICK 760612	$465M	$269M	58.4%
STATIC CONVERTERS; ADP POWER SUPPLIES 850440	$1.3B	$226M	21.6%
PASS MTR VEH,SPARK IGN ENG, >1000CC BUT =<1500CC 870322	$2.0B	$223M	18.4%
UNWROUGHT ALUMINUM, NOT ALLOYED 760110	$457M	$214M	48.0%
LITHIUM ION BATTERIES 850760	$1.2B	$204M	16.8%
MTR VEH TRANS GDS SPK IG IN C P ENG, GVW NOV 5 MTN 870431	$1.9B	$189M	23.2%
ELEC CONDUCTORS, LT=1000 V, W/ CONNECTORS, NESOI 854442	$628M	$184M	40.4%
PASS VEH SPK-IG INT COM RCPR P ENG > 3000 CC 870324	$1.5B	$168M	14.3%
PARTS AND ACCESSORIES OF MOTOR VEHICLES, NESOI 870899	$1.2B	$161M	26.8%
UNWROUGHT ALUMINUM ALLOYS 760120	$362M	$158M	49.4%
TRICYCLE, SCOOTR, PEDAL CAR & SIM WHEELED TYS; ETC 950300	$986M	$148M	19.5%
CONTROLS ETC W ELECT APPR F ELECT CONT NOV 1000 V 853710	$1.6B	$138M	19.3%
ARTICLES OF IRON OR STEEL NESOI 732690	$329M	$135M	52.9%
TAPS COCKS ETC F PIPE VAT INC THERMO CONTROL NESOI 848180	$797M	$134M	22.0%
FOOTWEAR, OUTER SOLE & UPPER RUBBER OR PLAST NESOI 640299	$496M	$133M	26.7%
ARTICLES OF PLASTICS, NESOI 392690	$838M	$124M	22.1%
PTS ELECT STORAGE BATTERIES INC SEPARATORS THEREOF 850790	$195M	$124M	36.8%
FOOTWEAR TEX UP RUBPLAS SOL SPORT SHOES 640411	$333M	$123M	36.3%

Product	Import Value	Current Duty	Current Rate
PASS VEH SPK-IG INT COM RCPR P ENG >1500 NOV 3M CC 870323	$4.6B	$735M	18.6%
PASS VEH W/SPK-IG AND ELEC MOTOR,NOT CHRGD BY PLUG 870340	$2.3B	$337M	15.4%
ALUMINUM ALLOY RECT PLATES ETC, OVER .2 MM THICK 760612	$465M	$269M	58.4%
STATIC CONVERTERS; ADP POWER SUPPLIES 850440	$1.3B	$226M	21.6%
PASS MTR VEH,SPARK IGN ENG, >1000CC BUT =<1500CC 870322	$2.0B	$223M	18.4%
UNWROUGHT ALUMINUM, NOT ALLOYED 760110	$457M	$214M	48.0%
LITHIUM ION BATTERIES 850760	$1.2B	$204M	16.8%
MTR VEH TRANS GDS SPK IG IN C P ENG, GVW NOV 5 MTN 870431	$1.9B	$189M	23.2%
ELEC CONDUCTORS, LT=1000 V, W/ CONNECTORS, NESOI 854442	$628M	$184M	40.4%
PASS VEH SPK-IG INT COM RCPR P ENG > 3000 CC 870324	$1.5B	$168M	14.3%
PARTS AND ACCESSORIES OF MOTOR VEHICLES, NESOI 870899	$1.2B	$161M	26.8%
UNWROUGHT ALUMINUM ALLOYS 760120	$362M	$158M	49.4%
TRICYCLE, SCOOTR, PEDAL CAR & SIM WHEELED TYS; ETC 950300	$986M	$148M	19.5%
CONTROLS ETC W ELECT APPR F ELECT CONT NOV 1000 V 853710	$1.6B	$138M	19.3%
ARTICLES OF IRON OR STEEL NESOI 732690	$329M	$135M	52.9%
TAPS COCKS ETC F PIPE VAT INC THERMO CONTROL NESOI 848180	$797M	$134M	22.0%
FOOTWEAR, OUTER SOLE & UPPER RUBBER OR PLAST NESOI 640299	$496M	$133M	26.7%
ARTICLES OF PLASTICS, NESOI 392690	$838M	$124M	22.1%
PTS ELECT STORAGE BATTERIES INC SEPARATORS THEREOF 850790	$195M	$124M	36.8%
FOOTWEAR TEX UP RUBPLAS SOL SPORT SHOES 640411	$333M	$123M	36.3%

Tariff Impact Simulator

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