Model how tariff rate changes affect U.S. trade. Select products and adjust duty rates to see the estimated impact on duty collection and trade volumes.
This simulator calculates static impact only. It does not model import substitution, retaliation, or supply chain shifts.
When tariff rates increase, the immediate effect is higher duty collection on the same import volume. Over time, higher tariffs may reduce import volumes as buyers switch to domestic alternatives or different source countries.
This simulator shows the first-order effect: given current trade volumes, what would the duty collection look like at different tariff rates? For deeper analysis, see our Tariff Impact Statistics page.
This tool shows the current trade volume and duty burden for each HS product category, then lets you model what would happen if its average duty rate changed. It calculates the additional duty that would be collected on the same imports for consumption. It does not model behavioral changes like import substitution.
The value of goods that cleared U.S. customs in the month, which is the value duty is assessed on (goods still in a bonded warehouse or Foreign Trade Zone have paid nothing yet). The simulator applies the change to that value: a product with $10B of imports for consumption at a 4% average duty rate today would pay about $2.1B more a month at 25% (21 points on $10B).
Total Monthly Duties
Aug 2026
$22.7B
Total Monthly Imports
Aug 2026
$336.2B
Products listed
50
HS6, most duty collected
Average duty rate today
16.8%
Imports for consumption
$6.3B
Simulated Duty
$1.1B
Duty Change
$0
View full product details for HS 870323
The duty calculated on the imports divided by the value of everything that cleared customs, duty-free goods included. Also called the effective tariff rate. The simulation applies a new rate to the same imports, so it ignores how trade would shift in response. How duty rates are measured
Aug 2026 · U.S. Census Bureau · 50 HS6 products by duty collected